Middle East from the cold war to the post Arab Spring period

At the end of the Second World War, Yalta agreements were a prelude to sharing the world into military zones. However, this split has different backgrounds; it was specifically for economical purposes. The main goal was the control of energies sources and more particularly oil.
Companies of exploring, operating and distributing oil had been launched: ARAMCO ( USA & KSA), B.P, Texaco, Shell and Total.
In 1970‟s the first energy shock happened. Asymmetries between the geographical distribution of resources and energy consumers had been consolidated by oil shortages in the petroleum-dependent countries.
The main source of conflicts in the world was connected to natural resources, which are unbalanced between producing and consuming countries and regions.
Stakes
Trade and economy:
In 1956 and 1973, the Middle Eastern embargo had a global impact on the conceptualization of energy security: “securization” of energy trade.
In 1967, Suez Canal has again been blocked by Egypt during the Arab-Israeli six-day war. Arab suppliers (KSA, Abu Dhabi, Algeria, Libya etc) decided to halt the export of oil to those countries whose policies were supportive of Israel.

Politics: 
It was crucial to have control on the area that has the more hydrocarbons; Middle East. The Suez is located in this area and a number of tankers transit between Mediterranean and the Red Sea.

Military stakes:
The strategy of having control on the richest areas in terms of energy has provoked wars in 1948 and 1957.
Actors
USSR:
The USSR had two allies in the middle-eastern region; Egypt under the president Nasser and Syria which was run by the Baas; a pan-Arabic party.
This relationship fueled the cold war in the area. Khrushchev, to prove its government‟s reliability, helped Egypt building the Aswan Dam while the B.I.R.D refused to help them first.
The USSR had a big influence in the region thanks to Warsaw pact and its economic influence was demonstrated in the Comecon.
Westerners: USA and Europe
Westerners decided to create in international oil Cartel in order to avoid any other shock and to improve oil‟s distribution.

Actions
Previous circumstances:
The wave of independency of third-world countries “forced” westerners to resort to violence if needed: The Bay of Pigs issue in Cuba, the control of young movements of liberation (ideologically and militarily), South American coup d‟état and the declaration of war in Vietnam.

At this time, international relations knew nuclear arms race (Pakistan, China, Iran etc…)
In terms of economy, multinationals appeared and operated worldwide. This was a reason for decisions‟ makers to create the G.A.T.T (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade).
The USA gave up Latin American dictators, Europeans changed tactics regarding former African and Arab countries. The USA became an ally of Saudi Arabia.
And the fall of Shah of Iran in 1979, the arriving of Sadat at the head of Egypt has changed the relations with the USSR. In fact, Sadat turned “capitalist” and he cancelled the friendship agreement with the USSR.

Pre-Arab Spring situation
After Saddam‟s government‟s fall, a new Iranian-Saudi cold war started. Iran has its allies in Iraq thanks to the religious link: Shia and pilgrimage at Nafaf.
In Lebanon, Hezbollah is one more ally of Iran and Bashar Al-Assad has a mutual defense pact with Iran and Russia. This pact which is still in force explains Russia‟s veto on the recent UN votes.
There are clearly two clans:

• One camp led by the USA: Saudi Arabia, Israel and Egypt.
• Self-styled „resistance‟ camp composed of Iran, Syria, Lebanon‟s Hezbollah and the Palestinian militia/party, Hamas.

These two camps were competing in different minor conflicts: Palestine, Lebanon and Iraq.

Arab Spring
Some conspiracies highlight the big interest of Westerners in the instability of Middle East and that the Arab spring is a pure American Brainwave. Matter of fact, Arabic populations needed changes. Strong countries thought it technically will be better to help them and meanwhile prevent their interests from progressive democrats who could have the wheel of the new Arabic governments.

Now the power is under “moderated Islamic” parties. In fact, these parties seemed to be very receptive to the Western intervention through the UN. However, they are now less likely to negotiate and deal with the USA in particular and Westerners in general.

Results

Losers of the Arab Spring

Tunisia, Libya, Yemen, and Egypt: There is no change expected since there is no democratic system in force.
Syria: Real revolutionist and competed by Jihadists from Iraq, Sahel, Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan. These people want to abort any kind of democracy, to chase non-Muslim people from Syria and to run the country through a very extremist sharia.
Egypt‟s instability increased since the election of president Morsi. In fact, a number of people are against this pro-Islamic style and do not want to move from a dictator to extremism. Over the past week, Morsi has been revoked and El Baradei ( former GM of the IAEA) is now the new Prime Minister of Egypt.

Israeli-Palestinian conflict
As soon as the Muslim brotherhoods took the head of Egypt‟s power, with the help of president Morsi, Hamas became a real representative of Gaza since the Israeli-Egyptian embargo has been broke.
We also shouldn‟t forget the past and history of Egypt; in fact the country had been beat over the last war with Israel. And in fact, the new wave of Muslim Brotherhoods seems to have a strong willing to help Palestine first, and who knows take its revenge.
Although Syria is an enemy, it was at least predictable and stable, and a civil war may threaten Israel‟s north-eastern border. Even the friendly Hashemite regime in Jordan may have to make concessions to its revived Muslim Brotherhood, which wants to abrogate the Jordan-Israeli peace.
Isreal is now isolated in the region and surrounded by Islamist governments.

Conclusion
It seems like revolutions can failed. In Egypt, demonstrations against Mister Morsi are still taking place in Tahrir place. In Syria, things are getting even worst. Every week, a dozen of Jihadists join the country and change the first sense of this revolution against Al Assad.
Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen and probably Syria can now be added to the list of weak Middle Eastern countries like Lebanon and Iraq.
Saudi Arabia and Qatar are still showing their power and influence over the rest of Arabic countries by either investing in these countries or by offering memberships to Gulf Cooperation Council to Jordan and Morocco.
In any cases, it is a sad Arab Autumn for Syria and Egypt.

Sources :
1. http://www.polinares.eu/docs/d1-1/polinares_wp1_ir_theories.pdf
2. Sipri.org : Yearbook 2007 chapter 6. KAMILA PRONISKA
3. The International Relations of the Middle East after the Arab Spring, Christopher Phillips, 2011, wordpress.com
4. Syria‟s Bloody Arab Spring, Christopher Phillips, 2012, wordpress.com
5. Introduction: The Middle East and International, Relations, Louise Fawcett
6. The Middle East in International Relations,Power, Politics and Ideology, Fred Halliday, University of London, March 2005
7. Géopolitique du Moyen-Orient et de l’Afrique du Nord de Tancrède Josseran, Frédéric Pichon et Florian Louis (25 avril 2012)
8. L’Égypte vers un deuxième printemps arabe?, jolpress.com, Rédaction par jolpress, 09/12/2012

9. http://www.aawsat.com/